Is Florida’s nearly ten-year hurricane drought about to end?

Latest tracking map with cone of uncertainty showing the potential for Erika to impact Florida in the coming days

Wilma was the last in many ways. It was the last of the 21 names on the 2005 list of names for the North Atlantic hurricane season (after Wilma, the Greek Alphabet was used). It was the last major hurricane (cat-3 or higher) to make landfall in the United States and it was the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida.

Not a single hurricane since for the Sunshine State- though there have been a couple of close calls.

Is this long-standing hurricane-free drought about to come to an end? It is possible though not officially forecast just yet. Here’s what we know…

Of course, I am talking about tropical storm Erika which is still well east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. Overnight, the storm has made a bit of a comeback with deep convection returning and the pressure dropping just a little bit.

The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center is still full of uncertainties. How can this be in this day and age? That’s an easy question to answer: tropical storms and hurricanes will likely always be tricky – not of all of them, but most. It’s just not cut and dry that this will happen or that will happen. In a season like this with so many road blocks in front of systems like Danny or Erika, it’s hard to put stock in model forecasts. So much can change and people are left either scratching their heads as to what the heck is going on (hype) or left unprepared because something happened that was not expected. Neither scenario is acceptable and so the challenge for the people at the NHC is to get the forecast right, even if that means forecasting a hurricane in to Florida in a few days. It’s darn close right now.

Erika is moving over warmer and warmer water as it moves west. This is an obvious plus for development. However, upper level winds are not very favorable and are tending to blow across the storm and this has acted to push the convection or thunderstorm activity away from the low level center. Without this machine running at full speed, the storm cannot intensify – at least not quickly.

I think the issue of dry air will be moot once Erika gets past around 65 degrees west longitude. The tropical Atlantic has become more favorable in recent weeks from a moisture standpoint. Another plus for Erika to eventually strengthen.

Then we have the models. This has been a real interesting phenomenon to watch over the past few days. You have some computer guidance indicating a very strong hurricane while, on the other hand, some of the best global models (not developed to predict hurricanes per se) simply get rid of Erika almost entirely. That would solve the problem, wouldn’t it?

Added to the madness are situations like the ECMWF which is widely regarded as the best overall global model on Earth. It has been going back and forth from run to run showing an intense hurricane followed 12 hours later on a subsequent run, a much weaker one at best. This happened night before last and the Internet hurricane world blew up with talk of a major hurricane lurking off the Southeast coast next week. Then, just like that, it was gone. Crickets….

Just wait 12 hours and a new version of “look out!” is cooking up with the ECMWF now showing a hurricane threat for Florida in less than a week. What is one to do? Well, I have the answer for that as well.

I have been doing this long enough to know that none of the models matter this far out. Seeing the ECMWF or the HWRF or whatever model you wish to follow show one thing after one run and something else later on will not change the outcome. What ever is going to happen will happen with or without computer guidance. To put it in simpler terms – people in the path of Erika or any future hurricane will likely have ample time to prepare and evacuate if need be. Relax. Spend less time fretting over the latest amazing model output map (there are some talented map makers out there – that is for sure!) and more time planning on what YOU will do if Erika heads your way. We have a five day forecast now from some of the best in the world. Trust that, not something affectionately called a “spaghetti plot”.

So as we watch Erika in the coming days, it will be prudent to remind people, as the NHC mentioned this morning in their latest discussion, that track errors at days four and five can be significant. A good deal of the Florida peninsula is now in the cone of uncertainty. In this case, Erika is providing plenty of uncertainty but as time goes by, things will settle down, leaving anyone within the path of the (potential) hurricane with time to take action.

It’s been a while for Florida since a hurricane threatened landfall. Erika may be the one to end the drought and if it is, I challenge people in Florida to be ready and not let all the fuss get to your heads. If you’re new, ask a hurricane veteran what it’s all about. Avoid stressing over social media posts of doom and gloom. If the time comes and Erika prompts a hurricane watch or warning, listen to your LOCAL TV and radio sources, check Twitter and Facebook for LOCAL information from emergency management. Above all else, do not give the hurricane trolls the time of day. They will be lining up to post ominous no-context maps just to gain “likes” or “clicks”. That’s feeding their ill-found egos. Look for local, trusted sources and of course, the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office. Do that and you’ll be fine. Act like you’ve been there Florida – even though it’s been nearly ten years, you all know hurricanes probably better than most.

I’ll have more here late this afternoon.

M. Sudduth 5:30 AM ET August 26